Readying the Umbrella before the Rain

A Chinese idiom calls on the wise man to prepare the umbrella before the rain. When Deng Xiaoping looked to China's future as the country emerged from the turbulent mid-twentieth century, the 'rain' he foresaw was the tremendous demand that China's rapidly growing population would put on resources just as China was beginning to emerge from 40 years of isolation. His response to this potential Malthusian catastrophe, China's One-Child Policy, is one of the greatest social and demographic experiments in human history. The policy effectively limits ethnic Han Chinese couples in urban areas to one child, with severe penalties for infractions. In the 29 years since policy inception, China has created an entire generation of single-child elites in the country. This generation has just begun to ascend the ranks of government, economic, and cultural leadership, and will have a tremendous impact on the character of PRC decision-making in coming years. When considered along side the already significant and growing importance of China in global affairs, the impact this generation will have on the future of humanity is unprecedented for a single, artificially constructed sociological group.

I intend this blog to focus on the critical questions that arise from this phenomenon that any diligent China watcher must ask. Some potential discussions include:

1. What does this transformation mean for the role of women in the Chinese pol-mil structure
2. What does psychology tell us about the character of only-child leadership. How does Chinese culture affect this (most studies are done on Westerners)?
3. How will this affect population demographics
4. How will the One-Child Policy affect traditional lines of power and action- without brothers/sisters/aunts/uncles/cousins, will 'Guanxi' survive as a primary means of getting things done?
5. Is this model readily exportable to other nations with pressing populations?

Unlike many similar blogs, I am less interested in a normative evaluation of the policy and more interesting in describing the ultimate effects such a policy will have on the political, economic, and cultural future of China. I invite comments and questions, as well as submissions.